Preseason Rankings
Sun Belt
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
122 Georgia Southern 21.3%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 7 +3.0      +2.6 100 +0.4 149 81.6 12 0.0 1 0.0 1
135 Texas Arlington 16.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 +1.6      -0.2 187 +1.9 116 66.4 242 0.0 1 0.0 1
138 South Alabama 14.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 12 - 8 +1.3      +1.7 123 -0.4 178 66.2 246 0.0 1 0.0 1
156 Texas St. 11.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +0.3      -1.8 231 +2.1 113 63.6 316 0.0 1 0.0 1
162 Georgia St. 10.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 9 -0.1      +0.6 153 -0.6 187 72.5 84 0.0 1 0.0 1
172 Coastal Carolina 9.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 9 -0.6      +0.7 145 -1.4 205 72.4 89 0.0 1 0.0 1
202 Louisiana 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 11 -2.5      +0.8 142 -3.3 269 77.9 19 0.0 1 0.0 1
212 Appalachian St. 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 11 -3.0      +0.5 158 -3.5 277 76.7 29 0.0 1 0.0 1
220 Arkansas Little Rock 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 -3.3      -2.8 259 -0.5 180 74.6 58 0.0 1 0.0 1
223 Louisiana Monroe 3.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 11 -3.4      -0.3 189 -3.1 261 66.8 233 0.0 1 0.0 1
271 Arkansas St. 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 13 -6.2      -1.9 233 -4.4 299 69.8 149 0.0 1 0.0 1
297 Troy 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 14 -7.7      -4.1 292 -3.6 279 68.1 198 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Georgia Southern 3.7 26.6 17.2 13.0 10.4 8.7 6.7 5.4 4.3 3.2 2.3 1.4 0.6
Texas Arlington 4.3 19.8 15.4 12.9 10.8 9.4 7.8 6.5 5.6 4.7 3.5 2.5 1.2
South Alabama 4.4 19.1 15.4 13.4 10.9 9.4 8.1 6.5 5.5 4.6 3.4 2.4 1.4
Texas St. 5.1 13.4 12.3 11.7 11.1 10.0 9.2 7.8 7.6 6.1 5.0 4.0 1.9
Georgia St. 5.3 11.5 11.9 11.0 10.9 9.9 9.3 8.7 7.5 6.7 5.5 4.2 2.8
Coastal Carolina 5.6 10.8 10.4 10.5 10.0 10.0 9.2 9.1 8.5 7.4 6.1 5.0 3.1
Louisiana 6.6 6.1 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.9 9.6 9.7 9.1 7.6 5.8
Appalachian St. 7.0 4.7 5.7 6.8 7.9 8.9 9.2 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.2 9.3 7.2
Arkansas Little Rock 6.9 4.6 6.4 7.2 8.0 9.4 9.2 9.4 9.9 10.0 9.8 8.7 7.4
Louisiana Monroe 7.1 4.4 5.5 6.5 7.4 8.7 9.1 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.2 10.0 7.8
Arkansas St. 8.5 1.4 2.2 3.6 4.4 5.7 7.2 8.5 9.7 11.3 13.5 15.6 16.9
Troy 9.3 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.1 3.9 4.9 7.1 8.1 10.6 14.1 17.9 25.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Georgia Southern 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.7 4.1 5.5 7.1 8.6 10.4 10.6 11.1 10.8 9.8 7.1 4.9 2.8 0.8
Texas Arlington 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.9 5.8 6.8 8.3 9.6 10.5 10.6 10.2 9.1 7.7 5.5 3.5 1.7 0.5
South Alabama 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.1 5.5 6.8 8.6 9.6 10.5 10.9 10.4 9.1 7.4 5.4 3.3 1.7 0.5
Texas St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.7 4.1 5.6 7.1 8.7 9.5 10.5 10.5 10.3 8.4 7.2 5.4 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.2
Georgia St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.1 3.2 4.6 6.0 7.3 9.0 9.9 10.2 10.5 9.6 8.4 6.6 4.9 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.1
Coastal Carolina 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.4 6.8 8.4 9.4 9.7 10.4 9.7 9.1 7.5 6.1 4.2 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1
Louisiana 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.1 5.8 7.6 8.8 9.6 10.5 10.0 9.4 8.6 7.0 5.7 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
Appalachian St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.3 4.8 6.4 8.9 9.3 10.0 10.7 9.9 9.2 7.7 6.0 4.4 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
Arkansas Little Rock 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.1 4.9 6.3 7.9 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.1 9.2 7.5 6.4 4.8 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.5 5.5 7.1 8.3 9.9 10.3 10.2 9.7 9.1 7.2 5.9 4.2 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
Arkansas St. 7 - 13 0.7 2.5 4.4 7.3 8.9 10.2 11.0 11.2 10.2 9.0 7.8 5.7 4.3 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Troy 6 - 14 1.5 4.2 7.2 9.9 11.2 11.7 11.6 10.2 8.9 7.1 5.6 3.9 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Georgia Southern 26.6% 19.0 5.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas Arlington 19.8% 13.3 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 19.1% 12.7 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 13.4% 8.8 3.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 11.5% 7.3 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 10.8% 6.5 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 6.1% 3.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 4.7% 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 4.6% 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 4.4% 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
Troy 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Georgia Southern 21.3% 20.5% 0.8% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.5 5.0 5.9 4.8 2.1 0.4 78.7 1.0%
Texas Arlington 16.2% 15.6% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 3.5 4.9 3.8 1.7 0.3 83.8 0.7%
South Alabama 14.7% 14.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.3 3.9 2.3 0.6 85.3 0.3%
Texas St. 11.5% 11.2% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.5 3.1 1.8 0.4 88.5 0.3%
Georgia St. 10.0% 9.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 2.9 2.9 1.7 0.4 90.0 0.2%
Coastal Carolina 9.5% 9.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.8 1.8 0.5 90.5 0.1%
Louisiana 5.2% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.4 0.4 94.8 0.1%
Appalachian St. 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.4 96.0 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 4.2% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.4 95.8 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.4 96.2 0.0%
Arkansas St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 98.7 0.0%
Troy 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Georgia Southern 21.3% 0.6% 21.0% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 16.2% 0.4% 16.0% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 14.7% 0.3% 14.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 11.5% 0.3% 11.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 10.0% 0.2% 9.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 9.5% 0.2% 9.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 5.2% 0.2% 5.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 4.0% 0.1% 4.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 4.2% 0.2% 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 3.8% 0.1% 3.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.6 2.4 0.0
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 98.0 1.5
2nd Round 14.5% 0.1 85.5 14.4 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0